By Lukas Krutz
In fiscal year 2023, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) recruited 9,959 people, just 51 percent of their 19,598-person target, according to Nippon, citing Japan’s Ministry of Defense. In another report, the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MOD) illustrates how the number of applications to the Self-Defense Forces fell by about 40 percent between fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2024.
Japan is turning to artificial intelligence and unmanned systems to compensate for the recruiting decline. Unmanned systems could help Japan watch its waters with a smaller force, but they shift demand towards technical expertise that is hard to find. Japan’s unmanned and AI-enabled maritime modernization will succeed only if can integrate skilled Civilian workforce alongside military personnel.
The shortage will become more serious in coming years. The MOD’s Defense Evaluation of the Current National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program reported that the total JSDF personnel could decline to approximately 180,000 soldiers by 2035 and 130,000 soldiers by 2045. A smaller force will have to maintain surveillance across the same maritime areas.
Japan’s personnel shortage is already increasing the burden on individual service members. A Brookings analysis found that personnel shortfalls mean many JSDF units operate below authorized strength, increase workload on individual service members, and raise concerns about the sustainability of mission execution while at the same time confronting an increased security environment around Japan’s waters.
Japan has responded to the demographic decline, mounting strain on its service members, and growing surveillance needs by turning to AI to help its forces work more efficiently. In July 2024, the Defense Ministry issued its first Basic Policy on Promoting the Utilization of AI, naming intelligence analysis, command and control, and unmanned assets among its priorities. The Next-Generation Information and Communication Strategy, published in October 2025, proposes cloud infrastructure and data sharing to support faster, AI-assisted decisions. Each of which depends on skilled people running the system and secure networks.
The Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) shows where this is heading. Unmanned systems offer a way to improve information-sharing and extend maritime surveillance across the waters around Japan. MOD’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget request includes unmanned air, surface, and underwater systems for surveillance, logistics, and maritime operations. Its largest unmanned vehicle request seeks 292.2 billion yen for 17 MQ-9B SeaGuardian long-endurance drones, which would improve intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting over Japan’s waters while potentially reducing the personnel required for some surveillance missions. Because this request would expand the JMSDF Forces long endurance and unmanned Vehicles, workforce planning should proceed alongside procurement.
However, Japan’s shrinking pool of recruits leaves it with few people available to train for these new systems. The MOD’s Fundamental Reinforcements of Japan’s Defense Capabilities paper released in November 2024 states, “No matter how much advanced equipment we procure, our defense capabilities cannot be brought to bear without personnel to operate them. “The paper explains that because of the recruitment decline, the defense ministry plans to draw on private-sector and civilian talent. That puts the MOD in competition with private industries for specialists who are already in demand across Japan. Tohoku Gakuin University, citing a METI study, says Japan could face a shortfall of up to 790,000 IT professionals in their worst projection by 2030.
Although the MOD saw recruitment improve in fiscal 2025, up 15 percent from last year, it was still 28 percent below the recruitment target. The Next-Generation Information and Communication Strategy, mentioned above, calls for making recruitment routes more flexible, and Japan’s cyber workforce strategy sets out ways to expand its ability to draw on experienced civilian talent.
Japan has therefore begun to address the challenge of recruiting from the private sector. The only task remaining therefore is to include a funded workforce plan that identifies the personnel needed to operate the systems for every major unmanned procurement. Personnel should be ready and trained when unmanned systems arrive.
The cost of getting this wrong is a fleet of unmanned systems and software no one can operate and a workforce too overworked to meet future mission requirements, leaving gaps in maritime surveillance. Getting it right would let a smaller force monitor more of Japan’s waters, respond faster, and put scarce personnel where they matter most. The success of AI and unmanned systems depends on how Japan can attract Civilian specialist to use the new systems in the most efficient way for its Naval forces. This preserves the central dilemma of needing people despite projected declines. Technology can stretch a smaller workforce; it cannot replace the people who run it.
Lukas Krutz is a Research Assistant at Asia Policy Point and an undergraduate student at Whitman College.
